Will Israel Attack Iran Or Will Iran Hit First? by Larry Johnson
Folks, while I disagree with Larry analysis in general, the details about the “deal” and some details “inside” the stolen land and that of the mindset of the chosen rats are worth to be taken note. Like their Seppo minions, the are full of themselves with hubris and their own stench!
As the video clip shows the “exchange of bullshit” between Iran and the Rat at the “world stinkiest body” it says everything about the evil shamelessness of politics and power in the world system we are living in.
Anyway, let’s wait and see.
Remember, I always stand by my report, analysis, and conclusion on this issue and I sincerely want to be wrong about it for the sake of Palestinians and the world. I really want to be proven wrong decisively! As a matter of fact. I will celebrate myself to see I am wrong!
Will Israel Attack Iran Or Will Iran Hit First?
7 August 2024 by Larry Johnson
It is beyond ironic that I am writing this on the 79th anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima. This picture (see above) is a meme that is circulating on message boards in the US Intelligence Community (IC). The small yellow dog is Iran. The large brown dog is Israel. The consensus in the IC is that Iran is going to chicken out and not do anything too provocative in response to the recent assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas officials.
The working assumption is that Iran will follow the same script as the April barrage of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that were in turn mostly intercepted and destroyed by Western and Israeli air assets. The scenario goes like this — The red phone at Al Udeid will ring and a deal will be brokered for the Ayatollah’s to strike some of Israel’s (and US) shit once a few hurdles have been cleared. At least that’s the deal Secretary of State Antony Blinken is pushing.
Let me remind you of what Iran’s Ambassador said more than a week ago to the members of the UN Security Council.
His message was simple and direct — either the UN exercise its power and sanction Israel for its attack on Iran (i.e., the murder of Hamas leader Isamil Haniyeh) or Iran will have no other option than to exercise its right of self-defense under Article 51.
Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.”
I do not think Iran is bluffing. They will launch an attack on Israeli military and/or intelligence assets, but will not go all out to destroy Israel.
Israel, for its part, is living in its own world of delusion. I received the following email from an acquaintance who is in touch with some of the younger Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF). It is telling:
This soldier has been on the ground in Gaza since the operation started and was just rotated out for a month, so he is traveling. He said that the ground combat is relatively straightforward, because of Israel’s use of large forces supported by tanks and air. The biggest anxieties are the unknowns of going into houses and tunnels. Soldiers have not generally been killed in the fighting, but from becoming targets at rest from RPGs, and a little from booby traps. He also observed that the Gaza civilian population will lie about everything. They say to your face how much they hate Hamas, while they have maps of “Palestine” on their walls, and their children’s comic books show children knifing Jews, which the children practice in school.
He also said that while the combat soldiers are able and aggressive, the upper generals are labor/left and defeatist. So what one hears in major media (including Israeli) reflects their political views more than the military realities and abilities. He said that the general population today is 90% behind Netanyahu and the prosecution of the war, including whatever Israel has to do should Iran or Hizbollah attack.
I think it would be a mistake to underestimate the additional capabilities that Israel has should it carry out major operations in Lebanon and Iran. They will not be ground wars like Gaza. Yes, Hizbollah has tunnels, mostly across the border as I understand it. That won’t help much against a depopulated north of Israel. Israel’s goal in Lebanon will not be to extirpate Hizbollah, like Hamas, but to drive them above the Litani River. So Hizbollah will not have an existential crisis and will not have the motivation to commit suicide for a 5km band of territory
One wonders how much intelligence Israel has about Iran and it mullocracy. Given what it has already been able to hit there, it may be able to do a major amount of damage to the government and IRGC leaders. We will just have to see. The big question at this minute is whether Israel will launch preemptive attacks on the gathering armies and weapons.
The dangerous divide in Israel between some of the senior military commanders and the Zionist settlers is reflected in this email. Many of the more extreme elements in Netanyahu’s government are pressing for a preemptive strike on Iran, including the use of nuclear weapons. This is not, as I understand it, simply idle chatter. There is serious and growing pressure to deliver what many of the Zionists believe will be a knockout blow to Iran.
Iran, for its part, is not lashing out emotionally, but carefully preparing a response that can be escalated. There is no doubt that Israel can do massive damage to Iran. But the Zionists are mistaken in their belief that they can prevail and Iran can do nothing to hurt them. I preemptive Israeli attack would solidify Iran’s claim that Israel is a lawless, murderous state and would likely lead to an even more devastating attack than the one currently being planned and prepped.
The only measure left for the United States to put an end to this madness is to curtail all funding and military support for Israel. That will not happen. It is a political impossibility given the current power vacuum in Washington. Biden is not in control and the various key actors in his Administration — Sullivan, Blinken and Austin — are pursuing their own narrow agendas. No one is thinking about the big picture.
A preemptive strike by Israel, even with conventional weapons, is likely to force the hand of Middle East leaders — such as Erdogan in Turkey, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and Sisi in Egypt — to take direct action against Israel. At a minimum, Erdogan would likely curtail all oil going to Israel from its stockpile.
If Israel goes nuclear that will bring Russia and China into the mix, beyond what they are already doing. One possibility is that Russia and China have given Iran hypersonic missiles with the proviso that Iran can only use them if attacked. Russia also may have provided Iran with some of its best air defense systems, including personnel to operate them, in hopes of weakening or even defeating an Israeli attack. If Iran does the Neo thing from Matrix — i.e., dodging all the bullets — it would enable Iran to declare victory without having to destroy Israel. I admit, that may be a bit farfetched, but one can hope.
What concerns me is that the US IC is reportedly locked down on the conclusion that Iran is all bark and no bite. I think they are failing to consider additional actions that Hezbollah and the Houthis could take, which could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses, even if provided massive support by the US and other NATO countries.
We never learn. On the eve of World War I, many believed it would be over quickly, with few losses:
It may surprise us to learn that some sectors of the European public were in favour of the war in 1914. The impact of modern weapons was not well understood and many people in the government, military and civilian population imagined that the conflict would be short. Ultimately the essential question regarding the First World War is not why did it happen – there have been innumerable studies written on this question – but rather what drove it on. Its main root was the strong patriotic and national feeling of the rural and urban middle classes of Central and Western Europe.
Here is the actual aphorism written by Mark Twain in 1874:
History never repeats itself, but the Kaleidoscopic combinations of the pictured present often seem to be constructed out of the broken fragments of antique legends.
We are on the precipice of a nuclear Kaleidoscope, and the picture is a horror show.